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《投资家凯恩斯》引言英文原文

Contents

    Foreword: Keynes the Investor  ix

    Preface  xxi

    Acknowledgments  xxv

    Introduction  xxvii

  1  Birth of a Speculator  1

  2  Economic Consequences  15

  3  Macro Versus Micro: The New Treatise on Money  35

  4  Building Portfolios with Opposed Risks  53

  5  The Birth of Value  71

  6  Animal Spirits: The Birth of Behavioral Investing  87

  7  Keynes’s Pets  105

  8  Keynes’s Heirs  123

  9  Keynes’s Keys to Wealth  137

    Epilogue: The Once and Future Keynes  151

 A  Visiting Keynes Country and His Other Sources of Wealth  157

 B  The Independent Investment Company Portfolio  161

    Endnotes  169

    Bibliographical Notes  183

    Index  189


Introduction

Keynes’s intellect was the sharpest and clearest that I have ever known. When I argued with him, I felt that I took my life in my hands, and I seldom emerged without feeling something of a fool. I was sometimes inclined to feel that so much cleverness must be incompatible with depth, but I do not think this feeling was justifed. —BERTRAND RUSSELL


The fairmont hotel ballroom  In chicago was whirring with excitement as Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman walked to the podium in front of 2,000 people. Speaking to the Chicago 

Council on Global Affairs on the frigid last day of January 2013, Krugman assailed the state of the American economy, which was slowly recovering, but which he characterized as still being in a depression. The New York Times columnist and Princeton pro-fessor weighed in on what it would take to restore full employ-ment, a subject that had haunted John Maynard Keynes for most of his career. This evening, though, Krugman was a rock star. 

The audience had braved subzero windchill to receive his wisdom. Like many in his profession, he was expounding on how to fx the American economy, which was still reeling from the recession that had followed the 2008 meltdown. As 2013 dawned, U.S. unemployment was still hovering around 8 percent, and Congress was wrestling with making more than $1 trillion in budget cuts and raising the debt ceiling to allow more borrowing. As one of the world’s foremost Keynesians, Krugman gave prescriptions for what ailed the economy.

Using the framework for describing crisis economics that Keynes developed in his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Krugman called the post-2008 period a “lesser depres-sion” because of the severe lack of consumer demand and corpo-rate spending.

The presence of Keynes, as channeled by Krugman (although he never mentioned Keynes by name), was deeply felt in the grand ballroom. What the English economist had frst recommended 

during the Great Depression was being revisited through the often-distorted lens of twentieth-century macroeconomics, which Keynes had fathered during one of the darkest decades of the century. Why was Keynes still a potent infuence some three generations after his death? Although the economist had become a lightning rod for often ineffective and overwhelming government intervention, his work came back into vogue following the 2008 

meltdown. When faced with a devastating recession that had cratered the housing and credit markets, thrown millions out of work, and nearly crippled the global economy, both Congress and the Federal Reserve adopted Keynesian approaches in an attempt to stimulate the economy. While the results are still mixed, this forced a new look at what the economist was all about and why he  is still relevant. 

Yet the essence of Keynes goes far beyond his theories and prescriptions, which are still engendering vigorous debate. The economist loved investing and markets. He staked his own money, managed millions for institutions, lost a bundle, but somehow managed to make a fortune in one of the worst times to be an investor. This is the largely unknown story that few economists or biographers have told. 


Beginnings


Keynes was born in Cambridge, England, on June 5, 1883, a child born into middle-class privilege during a period when Victorian England was lurching into the modern age. At the time, England’s position as the world’s largest economic power seemed secure, and its dominion extended from Australia to Canada. Keynes’s father, John Neville, was a Cambridge don and administrator. 

He published texts on economic method and philosophy. His mother, Florence Ada Brown, was the daughter of an esteemed Congregationalist minister who often “took up good causes, but never at the expense of her family,” writes Keynes’s biographer Robert Skidelsky.


Armed with a formidable intellect, arrogant confdence, and a keen sense of his place in the world, Keynes excelled in his studies at Eton, Britain’s top public school, where he obtained a scholarship in 1897. Mathematics was his particular forte, although he was also interested in all the arts. By 1902 he was admitted to Cambridge, again on scholarship. While he admitted that math never pleased him all that much, he gained a frst-class degree in the subject in Part I of the Mathematical Tripos (fnal honors degree exams). Along the way, he developed several enduring friendships, enjoyed a robust social life, and communed with great minds like the hilosopher/mathematician Bertrand Russell, ethicist G. E. Moore, and sage economist Alfred Marshall, a mentor who opened Keynes’s mind to economics. He was accepted into a secret society called the postles, which was the Cambridge equivalent of Skull and Bones at Yale.